CORE IDEA
Compare two views of the same event
Start with the market price, then examine how a different set of assumptions could lead to another probability. The gap is a starting point for research, not a guaranteed opportunity.
Research approach✦ Powered by Claude Opus 4.6 + Grok Heavy
Read the market.
Question the odds.
Prediction markets turn big questions into probabilities. PolyScan helps you explore the context around those numbers, compare perspectives, and think beyond a single price.
◇ Evidence first⌁ Clear comparisons◇ No account required✧ Market research
MARKET RESEARCHForecasts
Research published forecasts in one place.
₿ Crypto · ResolvedWill Bitcoin close above $92,000?
ForecastYES
Outcome✓ Correct
Open dashboard →73.5%Accuracy (34 forecasts)
9,347+Data Sources
6AI Models in Parallel
✧ RESEARCH NOTES
Market prices, event definitions, sources and uncertainty belong together. Published reports will show how an estimate was reached.
AI Analysis
Cross-referencing Kalshi pricing, Polymarket order book whale activity, Metaculus community forecasts, Reddit sentiment, and live news feeds. 6 models vote, disagreement is quantified, bias-corrected, and calibrated against our historical CRPS score...
Aggregating 9,000+ data sources in real time
Under the surface
More than a number. A way to reason.
PolyScan frames the questions worth asking when a market price and an independent view pull apart.
CONTEXT
Keep definitions in focus
Dates, sources, and resolution rules change what a market question really means.
Research approachMARKET MOVES
See what may have shifted
Connect a changing price with events that might explain it before drawing a conclusion.
Research approachUNCERTAINTY
Make room for disagreement
Compare competing explanations and identify the evidence that could change your view.
Research approachTRANSPARENCY
Show the assumptions
Explain where a scenario estimate comes from and why it may be wrong.
Research approachFeatures
Everything in view, without the noise.
A research format built to help readers understand a probability before acting on it.
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Probability comparison
Put the market's implied odds next to a research scenario and see the difference.
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Market divergence
Bring attention to questions where two views disagree most.
✧
Evidence notes
Summarize the sources and assumptions behind a view in readable language.
◈
Resolution awareness
Check the event wording, deadline, and criteria that determine the outcome.
◷
Change over time
Consider what new information could move the market or your estimate.
◇
Counterarguments
Review reasons the apparent gap could disappear or be misleading.
How it works
From a question to a better-informed view.
Four simple steps to research a prediction market more carefully.
01
Choose a question
Start with an event and read its exact resolution criteria.
02
Read the price
Interpret the market's current implied probability.
03
Challenge the view
Consider evidence, alternative scenarios, and uncertainty.
04
Compare and revisit
Note the gap, then update your thinking as facts change.
01Focused question
02Probability views
03Research angles
73.5%Verified accuracy
Forecasts
Forecast results in action.
Follow probability views through to their resolved outcomes, with the original market price beside every forecast.
₿ Crypto✓ Correct
Will Bitcoin close above $92,000?
AI forecast72%
↗Market price58%
+14.0% edgeResolved · YES
◈ Politics✓ Correct
Will the spending package pass the final vote?
AI forecast68%
↗Market price55%
+13.0% edgeResolved · YES
◉ Macro✓ Correct
Will the inflation report come in below 3%?
AI forecast76%
↗Market price65%
+11.0% edgeResolved · YES
Explore Track Record →34 resolved forecasts · Balanced accuracy 73.5%
Research mindset
Better questions lead to better analysis.
Read the event rules, weigh evidence, and question the assumptions behind every probability.
Explore the process →Look closer. Think clearer.
Explore how market prices and research scenarios can be compared with context.
No account needed · Market research